Research
Publications and working papers
2025
- The G.I. Bill and vocational schoolPatrick Molligo2025
This paper examines the impact of subsidies for vocational training on take-up rates and long-term labor market outcomes by studying the first large-scale public subsidy programs in the United States—–the World War II and Korean War G.I. Bills. Previous research emphasizes that these programs expanded college and high school attainment. I show that they also substantially increased vocational training, a key but overlooked channel through which the G.I. Bill affected human capital formation. Using variation in military service across birth cohorts as an exogenous source of eligibility, I estimate that G.I. Bill benefits increased vocational school completion by 4–9% for World War II veterans and 3–7% for Korean War veterans, with stronger effects in the South and among older beneficiaries. The results suggest that federal subsidies for education not only expanded traditional higher education but also directed many veterans toward trade school—–broadening access to job-specific skills and reshaping the composition of postwar training and employment.
2020
- The economic effects of trade policy uncertaintyDario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, and 2 more authorsJournal of Monetary Economics, 2020
This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms’ export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.